It should come as no surprise that Victor Wembanyama is the favorite to win Rookie of the Year. The Spurs center was billed as a generational prospect in the lead-up to the draft and he went first overall, as expected.
But Wembanyama’s overwhelming odds might warrant a look at the rest of the market. He’s currently a -200 favorite at SI Sportsbook to win the award, well ahead of the field, which includes Trail Blazers guard Scoot Henderson (+350), Thunder center Chet Holmgren (+550), Hornets forward Brandon Miller (+1200), Rockets guard Amen Thompson (+2000) and Pistons forward Ausar Thompson (+2800).
Under the NBA’s new CBA, players must play a minimum of 65 games to be eligible for regular-season awards. That stipulation alone makes betting on such a heavy favorite a risky proposition, even one expected to make an immediate impact on both ends of the floor like Wembanyama.
For context, Paolo Banchero, the No. 1 pick in 2022, was a +200 favorite to win Rookie of the Year in the preseason. The competition narrowed before the season began when Holmgren, the No. 2 pick in that draft, suffered a Lisfranc injury that sidelined him for the year. Banchero delivered on his favorite status and became the first No. 1 pick to win ROTY since 2018 while Holmgren is still eligible for the award.
Before Banchero, the last three Rookie of the Year winners played for teams that made the play-in or playoffs. He ended that streak last season as the Magic finished 13th in the East, but his statistical resume (20 points, 6.9 rebounds, 3.7 assists) was overwhelming.
While Wembanyama is going to put up impressive numbers, team success might be a ways away for San Antonio, which is coming off a 22-win campaign, one of the worst in franchise history. Wembanyama averaged 21.6 points, 10.4 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 3.0 blocks per game last season for the Metropolitans 92 in France, a stat line that will be difficult to repeat in his first year in the league. Still, with an eight-foot wingspan, he’ll be sure to make his presence felt on defense.
Henderson landed in Portland where it sounds like Damian Lillard is staying put. Henderson will be sharing the backcourt with one of the highest usage players in the NBA but he’ll also be learning from one of its top point guards who also attracts plenty of attention on offense. Henderson averaged 16.5 points, 5.3 rebounds and 6.8 assists in one season with G League Ignite and he scored 28 points in a head-to-head exhibition against Wembanyama last fall.
As for Holmgren, he could play a key role on an Oklahoma City team that made the play-in tournament without him. In one season at Gonzaga, Holmgren was good for 14.1 points, 9.9 rebounds and 3.7 blocks per game. His injury happened last August so he’s had almost a full year to recover. General manager Sam Presti also indicated Holmgren might play in Summer League, which begins next week.
After Wembanyama, Henderson and Holmgren, there’s a sharp drop in the betting odds to Miller and the Thompson twins. Miller should adjust to the pros well. As a rangy forward with a solid three-point shot, he’s the prototypical wing in the modern NBA. Miller averaged 18.8 points, 6.2 rebounds and 2.1 assists and shot 38.4% from three in one season at Alabama. He’ll also have the benefit of playing alongside 2021 Rookie of the Year LaMelo Ball.
As for Amen and Ausar Thompson, they’re both special talents but their situations are not necessarily conducive to winning the award. Amen Thompson is headed to Houston, an extremely young team with a starting lineup littered with recent lottery picks. Between Jalen Green, Kevin Porter Jr. and 2022 No. 2 pick Jabari Smith, there’s a lot of mouths to feed and only so many shots to go around. The same goes for Ausar Thompson in Detroit, where 2021 No. 1 pick Cade Cunningham and 2022 No. 5 pick Jaden Ivey run the show.
Though he’s the rightful favorite, the introduction of the games played requirement certainly makes you think twice before penciling in Wemby as the winner, especially at that price. Remember, load management originated in San Antonio and the team is likely to be cautious with the health of its 7’4” franchise cornerstone. Rookie of the Year will be an interesting market to keep an eye on as the top contenders take the court for Summer League over the next few weeks.